📊 US June payrolls 147,000 jobs

US economy delivers stronger‑than‑expected June jobs growth, adding 147,000 positions, prompting markets to dial back rate‑cut expectations

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In June 2025, the U.S. economy exceeded forecasts by creating 147,000 non‑farm payrolls—far above the expected 110,000—while the unemployment rate eased from 4.2 % to 4.1 %. The resilient labor market has triggered a reassessment among investors, pushing the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut lower.

🔍 Deep Dive: What the Numbers Reveal

Payroll surge: June’s total gains topped both May’s revised 144,000 and the consensus 110,000 projection .
Unemployment dip: The jobless rate fell to 4.1 %, reflecting labor market tightening. However, part of this decline stems from fewer people in the workforce .
Government-heavy hires: Education and state/local government roles drove much of the growth. Private sector additions were modest—just ~74,000—marking the weakest pace in eight months .

📈 Market Reaction & Fed Forecast

Bonds & yields: Treasury yields surged; the two-year note climbed 12 bps to 3.87 %, while 10‑year yields rose too.
FX & equities: The U.S. dollar strengthened, and equity futures rose modestly in response .
Fed outlook shifts: After being 25 % likely, July rate cuts are now out of the picture; expectations have shifted toward September or December .

💬 Expert Commentary

Jim Baird, Plante Moran: “The job market appears to be hanging in there… the slowdown in private‑sector job creation is still a cautionary note”.
Simon Dangoor, Goldman Sachs: The Fed is “likely to hold its wait‑and‑see stance” and could resume easing later if summer inflation cools .
Peter Cardillo, Spartan Capital: With unemployment down and hourly wages subdued, “that takes us back to a September rate cut… But I rule out July.” .

📅 What Comes Next

Inflation updates: Look for CPI and PCE reports in the coming weeks; any renewed upward pressure may further delay Fed easing.
Labor trends: Private‑sector hiring and workforce participation data will be the next key readings.
Global risks: Trade negotiations, tariff policy, and geopolitical developments will also shape economic momentum.

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