Cardinals, Giants, Blue Jays and more bubble teams with something to prove before the 2025 MLB trade deadline
July has arrived on the Major League Baseball calendar, and the month ahead occasions some important dates. One, of course, is the upcoming All-Star Game in suburban Atlanta, but for present purposes we’re focused on the July 31 trade deadline.
More specifically, we’re now examining this year’s allotment of bubble teams — i.e. those squads whose status as deadline sellers, buyer, or holders has yet to be determined because they’re barely contending or at least very close to barely contending. Obviously, these teams are hoping that a 2025 postseason berth is in their futures, but the first step is getting clarity on what the most prudent deadline approach will be in light of their playoff chances.
So who’s not a bubble team right now? We declare the following teams to be solidly in contention and thus having a clear deadline mandate as buyers, whether bold or soft: New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, and Los Angeles Dodgers. On the other, uglier end of the continuum we have the roundly lousy squads who will be sellers now matter how the month ahead unfolds. Those teams are the Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics, and Washington Nationals. Finally, the gravely disappointing Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves occupy the hazy middle ground between sellers and those who will almost certainly keep the band together and hope for a rebound season in 2026. As such, those two teams will also be left off the list to come. Maybe if either of them racks up 20 wins in July before deadline day, then we can revisit this mini-discussion. That’s a heavy lift, though.
As for the bubble teams, some about to be named are in playoff position right now but not securely so. Others are within spitting distance depending upon how skilled the spitter is. With those somewhat imprecise criteria laid out, let’s have a look at the many bubble teams that have something to prove before the days leading up to the trade deadline. Prove that something, and they’re buyers. Fail to prove it, and they’ll join the above-named palookas as sellers. Let’s get to it.
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R.J. Anderson
Coming off an 89-win season in 2024 and having added ace Corbin Burnes via free agency, much was expected of the D-backs this season. However, they’re still hovering around .500 as July begins. Burnes is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Zac Gallen hasn’t been close to himself, and Corbin Carroll is out with a wrist fracture. Even so, a wild-card spot is still in range for Arizona, but it’s a crowded and competitive fray in the National League.
Lead decision-maker Craig Breslow floated the idea that the Red Sox would be a better team after trading away their best hitter Rafael Devers. Not surprisingly, the opposite has turned out to be the case, and Boston is now comfortably in fourth place in the AL East. The AL wild-card field, though, is a highly forgiving one, at least thus far, and as such the sub-.500 Red Sox remain within range of playoff position. If they do falter and decide to sell, then the revitalized Aroldis Chapman could be one of the most sought-after high-leverage relievers of the deadline. Signs point to their being buyers leading up to July 31, but they’re on unsure footing.
The Reds, buoyed by a successful June, are very much in the wild-card chase while also remaining within range of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central. What they need more than anything is for ace Hunter Greene to return from his groin injury. As well, they recently got Austin Hays back from the IL, and the eventual return of Noelvi Marte from injury will be another boon to the offense. Ownership isn’t going to take on meaningful salary obligations at the deadline, so “buying” for the Reds might mean just getting healthier. The objective, then, is to avoid a July collapse that bumps them into seller territory.
Normally, the AL Central welcomes almost all comers into contention, but in 2025 the Detroit Tigers have all but buried the rest of the division even before the first half is over. As is the case with many would-be-sellers in the American League, however, the wild-card race is there to muddy the waters. The Dolans don’t care much for investing in the on-field product in Cleveland, so splash additions likely won’t be coming. “Buying” in Cleveland may translate to “not selling,” provided they remain within hailing distance of playoff position.
K.C. right now isn’t much better than the Braves, and normally a team in such a position wouldn’t qualify for bubble-dom. However – refrain forthcoming – that third AL wild-card spot has a particularly loud and permissive siren call. That’s why the Royals show up here. For K.C. to be any kind of notable buyer, though, they’ll probably need to be at least .500 by the time the true run-up to the deadline comes, and of course they’ll still need to remain within reasonable range of that final playoff spot. In other words, the Royals need to flip the script on their terrible June in a hurry.
The Angels’ season to date has been defined by streaks, and their most recent positive streak has put them back into a state of relevance in the AL. To be sure, they don’t look like a .500-ish team at a fundamental level (they have one of the worst run differentials in the AL and have played at that level like a team that’s 10 games under .500). However, at this stage of the season, the actual record matters more. There’s a long playoff drought in place in Anaheim, and the Angels would no doubt love to lose their punchline status with a shocking playoff run. As such, the Halos might be more active on the buy side than you’d think if they’re able to keep defying the odds in July.
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Mike Axisa
The Brewers are a bit hard to peg. They’re in playoff position right now and right on the heels of the Cubs, and in related matters they’ve been playing on another level since the last week of May. Peep the SportsLine playoff odds, and you’ll find that Milwaukee has better than a 70% chance to make it, even in the hotly competitive NL. That’s to say, there’s almost nothing plausible that could happen in July to make them deep sellers. That said, it’s possible the Brewers dip the toe in both ends. Perhaps they trade from their rotation depth leading up to July 31 (rumors have swirled about Freddy Peralta, for instance). That’s tricky, though, as a deep rotation is deep until it suddenly isn’t. Elsewhere, they could use an upgrade, at least on a platoon basis, on the left side of the infield. Another possibility is doing not much of anything and letting the current roster keep doing what it’s been doing. Like we said, hard to peg.
Like their AL Central mates in Kansas City, the Twins are on here only because the AL wild-card race allows it to be so. The reality is they’ve looked like a bad team outside of that 13-game win streak from early to mid-May. Even if they remain in the wild-card mix it’s hard to imagine that ownership will greenlight much in the way of salary additions. Really, the Twins are probably playing in July to avoid seller status rather than to position themselves as strong buyers.
It’s left to question how much the Padres have left to trade when it comes to being a buyer, but their status as a buyer seems certain. Lead exec A.J. Preller is very much a go-for-it kind of leader, and the Padres at this writing are right on the cusp of playoff position. They could use help in the rotation, what with the struggles of Dylan Cease and the injury concerns of Yu Darvish and Michael King. In the absence of a complete July collapse, they’ll probably indeed be looking to add a starting pitcher.
Given that the Giants and Buster Posey moved boldly to acquire Devers in June and given that they’re still in the NL West and NL wild-card races, it would take a calamitous July for the Giants to be anything less than soft buyers at the deadline. Even so, we must nod to the possibility that things go awry and the Giants sit this one out. So long as they don’t completely fall apart in the next three weeks or so, their deadline status is fairly clear. Even so, we’ll put them on the bubble given the strength of competition in the NL.
Powered by Cal Raleigh‘s MVP-caliber production, the M’s are, like many other teams, in the thick of the AL wild-card race, although the AL West race is slipping away. Given limited commitment from ownership, the M’s probably won’t do much more than make a marginal upgrade or two leading up to July 31. As such, it’ll probably be a quiet deadline in Seattle, which in Mariners speak means they’re contending. If July goes completely sideways, then they could pivot to sell, but that seems unlikely.
The Cardinals came into 2025 angling for a “transition year” in which they focus on giving regular playing time to younger players. That’s largely been the case despite not much roster churn over the winter. At the same time, though, the Cardinals have surprised onlookers and contended through the first three months of the season. It’s hard to imagine any serious buying activity, but a solid July could prevent a wider sell-off as St. Louis tries to make it back to the postseason for the first time since 2022. If things go sideways in the month to come, then names like Erick Fedde, Steven Matz, Ryan Helsley, and even Nolan Arenado (full no-trade clause permitting) could be shopped leading up to the deadline. Even if the Cardinals hold steady, some of those names may still be discussed.
The Rays are in fairly firm playoff position right now, and any other team in that spot would probably not land on this here bubble list. The Rays, though, have an owner who is utterly averse to tending to even the most basic obligations of his role, and that means the front office is forever looking for ways to keep costs down. So en route to a possible 90-win season and a battle with the Yankees for the AL East title, the Rays might wind up soft-selling before July 31. To be fair, the Rays don’t really have any pressing roster weaknesses other than the generalized “bullpen help” complaint that any contender can justify. Maybe outfield help could be justified. Anyhow, a full-on sale like last year probably isn’t in the cards. Unless July is particularly unkind to Tampa Bay, a quiet deadline is likely in the offing.
The Rangers were widely expected to enjoy a bounce-back season in 2025. While they’ve been better than they were last year, they’re merely hovering near .500 as July arrives. That’s enough to put them on the bubble. The fact that they’ve got a positive run differential and have a damn-the-torpedoes front office suggest they’ll seek out roster improvements. Even with a sub-.500 record, that’s a justifiable approach in the AL. The Rangers, though, can’t backslide in July.
The Jays are solidly above .500, in wild-card position, and still in the race for the division title. As well, jobs in the dugout and the front office may be at risk if the Jays miss the playoffs in 2025. That’s incentive to buy before July 31, and Toronto figures to do just that. A collapse in July could change the calculus, but it would take one heck of a collapse. The Jays are perhaps the most likely buyer on this entire list of bubble teams.
